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The author analyzes the factors involved in the American Civil War and investigates what might have happened if certain events had been different or certain specific decisions in battle or politics had been different.  The book proposes "counterfactual" history, based on an analysis and criticism of received wisdom about causes and trends.

This work represents the historical science of "cliometrics," the practice of measuring history.  Cliometrics uses mathematical analysis to objectify trends in history.

One approach to this analysis is to write a counterfactual history.  this provides a basis for comparative analysis of factors and trends to see what possible effect a change at some point might have made in the outcome, and how different that would have made our world today.

The first two chapters of Ransom's book analyze the actual situation leading up to the Civil War.  Then the counterfactual scenario is compared at each point with details of traditional to yield a cliometric analysis of the real situation.

Ransom develops very many details and insights into the historical and economic situation worldwide in the 1900s.  One surprising conclusion is that his analysis indicates that the USA and CSA would find themselves on opposite sides of the Great War (WWI).  He sees Woodrow Wilson as the leader of the CSA opposed to Theodore Roosevelt leading the USA.  The USA becomes the ally of Germany, while the southern nation allies with Britain and the Allies!

This is feasible, given the documented support of the New York financial establishment for Hitler, despite the Jewish opposition.  Much would depend on the level of animosity and rivalry that continued after the Civil War in to the 20th century.  This is an important area of Ransom's work where surmise and imagination play the biggest part.

Aside from the ultimate outcome, this work probes the history of the Civil War in such a way as to provide valuable insight on how the war was prosecuted, how discussions in the political sphere of both the USA and the CSA and affected the conduct of the war.  

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OBJ

First reading notes written 16 July 2005
Review finalized and posted on Amazon 18 February 2009
Posted on Thoughts and Resources 19 February 2009

Orville Boyd Jenkins, EdD, PhD
Copyright © 2009 Orville Boyd Jenkins
Permission granted for free download and transmission for personal or educational use.  Other rights reserved.

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